KAMPALA — The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Cooperatives has positioned the trade sector as a key driver in Uganda’s ambition to grow its economy tenfold from about $50 billion in the 2023/2024 financial year to $500 billion by 2040.
The strategy is anchored on the government’s ATMS model — Agro-industrialisation, Tourism development, Mineral-based industrialisation, and Science, Technology and Innovation — which aims to expand production, increase exports, create jobs and stimulate inclusive economic growth.
Trade officials say the sector will serve as the primary channel through which value-added products and services generated from the ATMS sectors reach both domestic and international markets.
The discussion is taking place during the National Trade Sector Review Conference currently underway at Speke Resort Munyonyo, where policymakers, industry leaders and trade stakeholders are aligning Uganda’s trade strategy with the country’s broader economic transformation agenda.
The conference aims to generate actionable policy and strategic recommendations to accelerate Uganda’s path toward the $500 billion economy target by 2040.
Speaking at the conference, the Permanent Secretary at the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Cooperatives, Lynette Bagonza, emphasised that policy alone will not deliver the ambitious economic target without strong production and competitive exports.
“A $500 billion economy by 2040 will not be achieved by policy statements alone,” Bagonza said. “It will be achieved by the strength of our industries, the productivity of our farmers and the ability of Ugandan goods to compete globally.”
According to government officials, Uganda’s export performance has already shown significant improvement in recent years. State Minister for Trade, Gen. Wilson Mbadi said exports have grown to $13.4 billion, a development he described as an important foundation for the country’s long-term growth ambitions.
“Under the visionary leadership of Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and the guidance of Trade Minister Francis Mwebesa, Uganda’s trade landscape has transformed,” Mbadi said.
“The growth in exports to $13.4 billion provides a strong foundation for achieving the $500 billion economy by 2040.”
The government is also prioritising import substitution as part of its industrialisation strategy, with a focus on locally producing goods that Uganda previously relied on imports to supply.
Trade Minister Francis Mwebesa said sectors such as cement, steel, pharmaceuticals, textiles, edible oils and dairy are now increasingly competing with imported products.
“We are prioritising import substitution for products such as cement, steel, pharmaceuticals, textiles, edible oils and dairy,” Mwebesa said. “Our products are now competing with imports and winning.”
The conference is expected to conclude on Thursday with several key outcomes, including the launch of an online trade permit system aimed at simplifying trade processes and improving efficiency in the sector.
Participants are also expected to adopt a high-level conference communiqué outlining priority policy actions, document implementation proposals for trade policy and strategy, strengthen coordination among stakeholders, and increase awareness of Uganda’s trade dynamics.
Officials say the outcomes of the meeting will help shape policy options and practical strategies for leveraging the trade sector to support Uganda’s tenfold economic growth ambition by 2040.
